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Price: Right or Wrong


“There’s something very reductive about the stock market. You can be right for the wrong reasons or wrong for the right reasons, but to the market, you’re just plain right or wrong.”
John Allen Paulos

Are you comfortable with the concept of right and wrong? The price you analyze everyday is the truth. Price does not lie. The price is always right.

Taking price a step further we can see…

Markets are also the same because of price. All markets are most directly measured by their individual price movements. What do cotton, crude oil, Cisco, SUN, GE, US Dollar, Australian Dollar, soybeans, wheat, Microsoft, JDS Uniphase, EMC and Oracle all have in common? Let’s say you know nothing about trading cotton. Moreover, you also know nothing about fiber optic networking (a specialty of JDS Uniphase). Oracle and databases? Let’s say you are clueless about them as well. Does it matter that the fundamentals of cotton, JDSU and ORCL are all different? What if you just analyze their market prices?

Trend following does not require an understanding of the market fundamentals. Take the price data and apply your rules. If your trading is pure trend following, all markets are the same in terms of price analysis.

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